The disruption to energy flows caused by the Iran war is expected to push global coal use up by more than 1% this year, according to the International Energy Agency, as reduced liquefied natural gas supplies and higher gas prices lead some countries to switch from gas to coal. Pakistan, Bangladesh, Poland, South Korea, Japan and the Netherlands were among the countries reported to have burned more coal, although the Netherlands used more than in both 2024 and 2025. The increase in coal use is expected to be temporary, while analysts anticipate a longer-term decline and continued growth in renewable energy.

At the same time, the Global Carbon Project expects global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels to fall slightly this year, driven mainly by a projected 1.9% drop in oil-related emissions and a smaller decline from natural gas. Emissions are forecast to fall by 1.5% in the European Union, 0.9% in China and 1.3% in the United States. Coal emissions are the exception and are increasing. Scientists said the overall dip was likely to be brief and linked to geopolitical disruption rather than a lasting change in the emissions trend.