DisastersScience

2026 likely to exceed 1.5 degrees of warming

Global temperatures in October 2026 were reportedly the highest ever recorded for that month, according to the latest Copernicus data, making it almost certain that the year will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming relative to the 1850–1900 average. That would make 2026 only the second calendar year to cross that level, after 2024, although the long-term average would still remain below it.

October had an average global temperature of 15.35°C, or 1.75°C above the preindustrial reference period. Sea surface temperatures outside the polar regions also reached a record average of 20.95°C, amid a strong El Niño. Europe experienced its second-warmest October on record, while Central and Eastern Europe saw exceptional drought and low river levels, including in the Rhine and Danube; other parts of Europe experienced heavy rain and flooding.